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2018 Great Lakes Hurricane Season
The '''2018 Great Lakes Hurricane Season '''is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Great Lakes region. The season officially began on June 1, 2018 and will end on November 30, 2018. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Great Lakes basin. However, tropical cyclone activity is possible any time of the year, as shown with Tropical Depression Alberto, which entered the Great Lakes basin after making landfall in Florida as a subtropical storm before weakening to a 30 mph subtropical depression, leveling off in intensity, transitioning to a fully tropical depression over Tennessee, and moving into the NHCGLD's area of responsibility after crossing the Tennessee-Indiana border on May 30th. Season Predictions Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. Pre-season Outlooks The first pre-season outlook was given on March 1, 2018 by TSR, calling for a below average season with 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. By April 2018, TWC released their forecast, which called for 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Season Summary On May 28, 2018, Subtropical Storm Alberto from the Atlantic basin made landfall near Laguna Beach, Florida, with sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm weakened some while moving inland but made an unexpected transition to a fully tropical cyclone over Tennessee, with maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH. Alberto officially moved into the NHCGLD's area of responsibility on May 30 after crossing into Indiana and moved across Michigan as a tropical depression before becoming post-tropical on May 31. After Alberto's dissipation on May 31, tropical cyclone activity in the Great Lakes went quiet with no systems forming throughout the months of June and July. Then on August 1, Tropical Storm Alejandra formed over Lake Michigan and intensified to maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm later made landfall in Chicago, causing $150 million in damage from flooding. List Of Storms Tropical Depression Alberto On May 28, 2018, Subtropical Storm Alberto from the Atlantic basin made landfall near Laguna Beach, Florida, with sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm weakened some while moving inland but made an unexpected transition to a fully tropical cyclone over Tennessee, with maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH. Alberto officially moved into the NHCGLD's area of responsibility on May 30 after crossing into Indiana, thus initiating advisories on the first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Great Lakes hurricane season. Initially upon the NHCGLD taking over advisories for Alberto from the WPC, it was forecast to strengthen to a minimal tropical storm over Lake Michigan. However, Alberto failed to strengthen as it approached Michigan and started to undergo extratropical transition as it entered the state. On May 31, the last advisory on Alberto was issued as it became a post-tropical cyclone in Northern Lower Michigan. In the Great Lakes basin, Alberto is responsible for rainfall flooding around the Chicago area, with damage estimates in Illinois around $40 million. No deaths occurred from Alberto in the Great Lakes basin. Tropical Storm Alejandra On July 30th, 2018, the NHCGLD put out a statement on the tropical weather outlook highlighting the possibility for a tropical low pressure to develop in Lake Michigan around the beginning of August, citing very low wind shear and warming lake temperatures. By July 31st, a disorganized area of low pressure formed just off the coast of St. Joseph, Michigan. At this point, development was expected to be slow. However, the low pressure started to undergo a period of rapid organization, with the low looking well organized by the morning hours of August 1st. Later that day, organization and convection met the tropical cyclone definition, and the NHCGLD started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 1. By early morning on August 2nd, TD 1 intensified enough to be named Tropical Storm Alejandra, becoming the first named storm of the season with the great lakes names and the second overall named system of the 2018 season. Alejandra slowly moved towards the NNW throughout the day before making a westward turn late on August 2nd. Early on August 3rd, Alejandra made another turn, this time to the South and SSW, still at a slow pace. Alejandra made another turn to the SSW early on August 4th, with Alejandra attaining its peak winds at 60 mph shortly after the turn was observed. Alejandra then made landfall in Chicago, Illinois late on August 4th with peak winds of 60 mph and a minimum pressure of 992 mbar. Alejandra started a slow weakening trend as the storm moved inland heading into August 5th, with Alejandra falling below tropical storm strength in the evening hours of August 5th. Alejandra then made a northward turn before dissipating the next day. Alejandra is well known for causing flooding in Chicago, with damage estimates up to $150 million, and 7 people dead. Hurricane Benny The NHC began monitoring an area of low pressure on August 13th, which was producing disorganized showers and storms. The storm was not expected to form until Lake Michigan due to wind shear and dry air. Instead, however, the system underwent a period of rapid organization, and the NHCGLD started issuing advisories on TD 2G at 11 PM on August 13, 2018. TD 2G then quickly intensified to Tropical Storm Benny the next morning, with Benny continuing to gather strength over the unusually warm Lake Superior waters throughout the day. By 5 PM on August 14th, Benny achieved winds of 60 MPH. Benny then further strengthened to attain winds of 70 mph before making landfall on Grand Island, Michigan. Benny weakened some as the storm crossed the UP of Michigan, reemerging over Lake Michigan by 11 PM on August 16th, with winds of 50 mph. Benny then started to rapidly intensify and by the morning hours of August 16th, Benny had strengthened to hurricane intensity, with continued rapid strengthening continuing throughout the day, with maximum sustained winds being brought up to 90. Benny's intensification process stalled somewhat in the evening of August 16th due to an eyewall replacement cycle. However, by Friday morning on August 17th, intensification resumed and Benny strengthened quickly to a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane by Friday Night. Benny continued to intensify throughout Saturday as the hurricane skirted the west coast of Michigan, attaining winds of 145 MPH by 11 PM that night. After resuming motion the next day, Benny strengthened rapidly to a Category 5 hurricane with winds at 190 mph. Benny then made landfall in Sheboygan, Wisconsin, as a slightly weaker 185 MPH Category 5 hurricane at 11:30 AM EST on Monday, August 20, 2018. Benny then started to weaken as the storm moved inland, weakening to winds of 165 mph by 11 PM that evening. Benny weakened to a Category 3 as the storm moved over Lake Winnebago. Hours later, Benny made a third and final landfall in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, with winds of 115 MPH. Benny continued to weaken gradually as the storm moved inland, dropping below hurricane status on August 22nd. Benny then started to undergo extratropical transition as the storm sped off to the NNW. Benny became extratropical on August 23rd and turned north, before dissipating in Canada on August 24th. Benny was a very destructive storm for Wisconsin and Michigan, with the hurricane causing $4.6 billion in damages, with $3.3 billion in damage occurring in Wisconsin and another $1.6 billion in damage caused in Michigan. The hurricane was responsible for taking 18 lives, with 4 in Michigan and 14 in Wisconsin. Storm Names The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the Great Lakes in 2018. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization sometime after the storm happens. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. This is the third list generated by the NHC to be used for the Great Lakes basin after tropical cyclones in the Great Lakes region started getting named back in 2016. Category:Great Lakes seasons